UFC 100: HALF ASSING THE REST OF THE CARD

Time is short, and I have to prepare for a houseful of people so this is my micro-breakdown of the rest of the UFC 100 card.

GSP - ALVES:

Alves is a big guy, with a solid ground game and Chute Box striking.
GSP is just as big a guy with a solid ground game, precision striking, insane wrestling, and unmatched Vaseline.

Alves has a decent shot of knocking GSP out. I mean come on, Serra did it. Will he though? Nah, probably not. Alves has lost to Fisher and Fitch. GSP has better wrestling that anyone in the division and a solid ground game, so he should have no need to stand.

GSP will take Alves down and pound him out. Possibly in the first, my pick is in the 2nd.

GSP via 2rd TKO

Mark Coleman - Stephen Bonnar

Seriously now, does anyone think Coleman has a shot here? Mark Coleman is Hammerhouse personified. Good Wrestling, wild strikes, no cardio, no BJJ, no submission defense.

The elder Coleman will come out and attempt to take down Bonnar. He may get the TD, he may not. If he does, he will get kimura'd, if he doesnt, Bonnar will bang with him until Mark gets blown up, at which point Bonnar will submit him in any number of other ways.

Bonnar via 2rd submission (note: Again, I could see this likely happening in the first, but I want to give Coleman the benefit of the doubt that he can mount SOME offense.)

Jon Fitch - Paolo Thiago

If you want to place money on an underdog, this is place to do it. Thiago is not very likely to win, but he is undefeated and has a win over Koscheck. I have seen some insane odds out there like Thiago +580. That is nuts!

That being said, Thiago is really a BJJ guy, and Fitch knows perfectly well how to takedown and maul a BJJ guy without getiing subbed. Koscheck used to, but apparantly he forgot he wasn't a striker.

Jon Fitch via 2rd TKO


Yoshihiro Akiyama - Alan Belcher

All week I have had my pick set as Akiyama by TKO. Then I saw the weigh in photo and fully grasped that Alan Belcher is a solid second tier UFC THAI BOXER with 4 inches on his Ocatagon virgin of an opponant.

If Belcher fights smart he will use his length to keep Akiyama at bay and wear him down with leg and high kicks. If this happens I could see Belcher winning a decision or even getting a TKO over the undeafeated (by anyone within 50 lbs of him) Akiyama.

Don't get me wrong, Akiyama is a star. He is a Judo master with insane strength and good hands. I don't see the crowd affecting him whatsoever...but the sheer spectacle of UFC 100 mixed with the newness of the octagon, his unproven cardio and reach disadvantage...I am going out on a limb and taking Belcher.

Belcher via 3rd TKO

Jake O' Brien - Jon "Bones" Jones

Jake O' Brien is lay and pray specialist with excellent wrestling.
Jon Jones is an excellent wrestler who learns new moves off of Youtube.

Does Jones have good enough Wrestling to keep O' Brien from taking him down and smothering him? Yep.

Does O'Brien have good enough standup to compete with Jones on his feet? Nope.

Jon "Bones" Jones via TKO...ummm....I was think the 2nd, lets go with 1st round.

The rest:

Dolloway over Lawler vis 1rd sub
Miller over Danzig via u-decision
Kim over Grant via u-decision
Guggerty over Grice via 1rd sub