The mid-afternoon after...

We are going to be on the road for most of the day, so no major blog today. I would like to ask that any of you who have any questions you would like answered here, please send them to james@tkoreport.com

One last talking point I think I forgot to mention last night / this morning is the size issue with Alves.

Am I the only one who was baffled listening to the commentators go on and on about how large Alves is, and how much weight Alves cuts, when he looked an entire weight class SMALLER than Georges St. Pierre?

I think it comes down to his missing weight against Matt Hughes, thus making it an issue. The fact of the matter is that if GSP walked into that cage at 190, as they claimed, then Thiago Alves was 180 max.

UFC 100 POST FIGHT TALKING POINTS

It's 2:45 AM and the last of the nights fight crew just hit the road, so instead of a full blown review I will hit some bullet points to discuss more in depth tomorrow.

• Brock is getting amazing heat from the fans for "poor sportsmanship" for flipping everyone the bird ( Which has of course never happened before...cough...Diaz....cough), when just two fights previous we saw Dan Henderson admitting inflicting additional harm on an opponent he claims he KNEW was unconscious.

• Will Brock face any punishment for his criticism of the UFC's most important sponsor, Bud Light?

• Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz were stars. Brock is going to be a superstar. My phone, email, Facebook and twitter were blown up all night by people telling me either how great he is for the sport or how bad he is for the sport. In my opinion, Brock is the smartest guy in the room. He was never going to be accepted by hardcore fans in the MMA world, so he decided to be the best bad guy money could buy. He got exactly what he wanted and exactly what the UFC wanted. Fans who love him will pay to see him fight, and fans who hate him will pay to hopefully see him lose. I think the latter will remain disapointed for a great many years. Tonight, in my mind, Brock became MMA's Tyson. Hardcores hated him and considered him overrated and immature, but he was the only boxer the rest of the world cared about.
  

• I am PRETTY sure that much of Brock's success in controlling Frank on the ground was courtesy of turn of the century catch-wrestling chanceries and modified-nelsons.
  

• As promised, Michael Buffer pulled off a 360 and the cameras didn't even catch it.

• Alan Belcher's tattoo was the talk of the show both at my place AND on the net. Before it was revealed to be Johnny Cash, our best guesses were: Kim Jong Il, Elvis, Fat Albert, and Rosie O' Donnell.

• Did anyone notice the sea of commission personnel making SURE that GSP wasn't greasing?
  

• Everyone here wanted to know who bloodied up the mat before the PPV portion of the card. The answer: Stephen Bonnar and Mac Danzig.
  

• Both Akiyama and Belcher was quite impressive. I had Belcher winning 1 and 3, with Akiyama taking round 2. I will rewatch tomorrow to see if I might have missed something.

• Mark Coleman proved me, the NSAC and bookmakers wrong.

• What did you guys think of the manner in which Greg Jackson addressed GSP in between round? I think the best comparison would be to an adult talking to a kindergartner.

• Where does Bonnar go from here?
  

• Good night!
  

UFC 100: HALF ASSING THE REST OF THE CARD

Time is short, and I have to prepare for a houseful of people so this is my micro-breakdown of the rest of the UFC 100 card.

GSP - ALVES:

Alves is a big guy, with a solid ground game and Chute Box striking.
GSP is just as big a guy with a solid ground game, precision striking, insane wrestling, and unmatched Vaseline.

Alves has a decent shot of knocking GSP out. I mean come on, Serra did it. Will he though? Nah, probably not. Alves has lost to Fisher and Fitch. GSP has better wrestling that anyone in the division and a solid ground game, so he should have no need to stand.

GSP will take Alves down and pound him out. Possibly in the first, my pick is in the 2nd.

GSP via 2rd TKO

Mark Coleman - Stephen Bonnar

Seriously now, does anyone think Coleman has a shot here? Mark Coleman is Hammerhouse personified. Good Wrestling, wild strikes, no cardio, no BJJ, no submission defense.

The elder Coleman will come out and attempt to take down Bonnar. He may get the TD, he may not. If he does, he will get kimura'd, if he doesnt, Bonnar will bang with him until Mark gets blown up, at which point Bonnar will submit him in any number of other ways.

Bonnar via 2rd submission (note: Again, I could see this likely happening in the first, but I want to give Coleman the benefit of the doubt that he can mount SOME offense.)

Jon Fitch - Paolo Thiago

If you want to place money on an underdog, this is place to do it. Thiago is not very likely to win, but he is undefeated and has a win over Koscheck. I have seen some insane odds out there like Thiago +580. That is nuts!

That being said, Thiago is really a BJJ guy, and Fitch knows perfectly well how to takedown and maul a BJJ guy without getiing subbed. Koscheck used to, but apparantly he forgot he wasn't a striker.

Jon Fitch via 2rd TKO


Yoshihiro Akiyama - Alan Belcher

All week I have had my pick set as Akiyama by TKO. Then I saw the weigh in photo and fully grasped that Alan Belcher is a solid second tier UFC THAI BOXER with 4 inches on his Ocatagon virgin of an opponant.

If Belcher fights smart he will use his length to keep Akiyama at bay and wear him down with leg and high kicks. If this happens I could see Belcher winning a decision or even getting a TKO over the undeafeated (by anyone within 50 lbs of him) Akiyama.

Don't get me wrong, Akiyama is a star. He is a Judo master with insane strength and good hands. I don't see the crowd affecting him whatsoever...but the sheer spectacle of UFC 100 mixed with the newness of the octagon, his unproven cardio and reach disadvantage...I am going out on a limb and taking Belcher.

Belcher via 3rd TKO

Jake O' Brien - Jon "Bones" Jones

Jake O' Brien is lay and pray specialist with excellent wrestling.
Jon Jones is an excellent wrestler who learns new moves off of Youtube.

Does Jones have good enough Wrestling to keep O' Brien from taking him down and smothering him? Yep.

Does O'Brien have good enough standup to compete with Jones on his feet? Nope.

Jon "Bones" Jones via TKO...ummm....I was think the 2nd, lets go with 1st round.

The rest:

Dolloway over Lawler vis 1rd sub
Miller over Danzig via u-decision
Kim over Grant via u-decision
Guggerty over Grice via 1rd sub

Bisping - Henderson

So far I have been pretty amazed by the disconnect between MMA fighters and media, and the casual fans. Really, it is something I have not noticed so profoundly since the first Anderson Silva - Rich Franklin fight.

To a man, every casual MMA fan I know, plus a number of hard-core fans are picking Mike Bisping without hesitation, much as they picked Rich Franklin over Anderson Silva.

My opinion is that the result for the fan favorite will be much the same.

A quick overview of Bisping is this:

Pros: He is confident four points striker who finsihes his opponants with flurries. Bisping shows some takedown defense and average to slightly above average submission knowledge.

Cons: While Bisping is an exciting striker, he has shown a complete inability to knock out anyone but low level fighters. His wrestling is quite good for coming from Britain, but middling at best for a UFC level fighter.

Lets look at who Bisping's career in the UFC. First he defeated Josh Haynes, an out of shape, over matched also ran with a 12-10 record who is no longer with the company. Next came Elvis Sinosic. Elvis's record is 8-11...need I say more? Moving on we come to Matt Hamill, a bull strong wrestler with strong untrained hands and little MMA experience. No matter what the official records show, every single non-Bisping on the planet that watched the fight knows Michael Bisping lost. Hamill's untrained striking rocked Bisping from the beginning, Matt tossed him around like a rag doll and took him down with ease. Bisping left with the "W" but with the knowledge he was not the better man. Next up for Bisping - Rashad Evans. The story of the fight was Rashad cracking Mike with big right hands and then taking him down. Bisping lost the decision and decided to drop to Middleweight.

Now what exactly caused him to drop? Two big powerful wrestlers with middling, but powerful striking.

So Mike drops, runs through a scrub in Charles McCarthy, a C level fighter in Jason Day and then fails to knock out a game, but hardly top level Chris Leben.

This brings us to today and Bisping's opponant Dan Henderson.

Dan Henderson:

Pros: Henderson is an olympic level wrestler. He is extremely large and powerful for Middleweight. While not a refined striker he has knockout power in his big right hand. He has an EXCELLENT chin and great submission defence.

Cons: Henderson's submission skills are sub-par.

While the highlights of Mike Bisping's record are a and a decision win over Chris Lebenpoor decision over Matt Hamill - Lets stop and take a look at Dan Henderson's record.

Note: Henderson has about 2 million fights, so we wont go one by one. Just the important ones.

Hendo holds wins over: Carlos Newton, Heavyweight Gilbert Yvel, Former UFC Heavyweight Champ Rodrigo Nogueira, Babalu Sobral, Renzo Gracie, Murilo Bustamante, Ryo Chonan, Akihiro Gono, Kizuo Misaki, Vitor Belfort, Rich Franklin, and Wanderlei Silva.

You will notice that I highlighted the wins over former UFC champions. Dan Henderson has defeated SIX former UFC and Pride champions.

Now lets look at Dan's losses:

Dan Henderson has never been knocked out.

Henderson has been submitted three times: Once by Anderson Silva, and twice by the Nogueria brothers. All large BJJ black belts, with the elder Nogueira fighting two weight classes up at Heavyweight.

Every other loss in Henderson/s career has been via decision...usually very close decisions. Henderson lost a unanimous decision to then Pride champion Wanderlei Silva who was in the middle of a 4 year winning streak. Dan was the man who would eventually take Silva's title via knockout in 2007.

His other decision losses were to UFC champ Rampage Jackson, Nogueira teammate Ricardo Arona, and japanese standout Kizuo Misaki who Henderson had previously defeated just 4 months before.

So if you look at Henderson's losses, he has only been finished by large Jiu Jitsu specialists.

Final analysis:

Mike Bisping: He is susceptible to big wrestlers with strong punches. He is a striker with little wrestling and little Jiu Jitsu.

Dan Henderson: He is one of the top wrestlers in MMA history and has huge punches. He is susceptible to big Jiu Jitsu black belts.

Michael Bisping is one of my favorite fighters. Michael Bisping would be an exciting and fun challenger to Anderson Silva. Michael Bisping does not stand a chance in this fight.

Though there is a small chance that Henderson knocks Bisping out, my money is on Dan Hendersom via Unanimous Decision.

HENDERSON - BSIPING. GSP - ALVES

FULL BREAKDOWNS OF HENDERSON - BISPING AND GSP - ALVES COMING TONIGHT

BROCK LESNAR - FRANK MIR II: THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

Many consider Brock Lesnar an interloper. A fake fighter who is all talk and size. My opinion is that this could not be farther from the truth.

EVOLUTION:

What Brock Lesnar is, in my opinion, is a glimpse into the future.

In 1993 the sport was inhabited, for the most part, by out of shape McDojo instructers straight out of The Foot Fist Way or The Rex Kwon Do Academy. Next the sport started to bring in good athletes who were past their prime; Men such as Dan Severn. Then came cross trained fighters like Marco Ruas and Frank Shamrock who paved the modern Mixed Martial Artists - exceptional athletes who are skilled in Boxing, Thai Boxing, Wrestling, Jiu Jistu, etc...

BROCK LESNAR:

Brock Lesnar is the next step in the evolution of MMA. Is he more well rounded than GSP? No. Is he a smarter fighter than Randy Couture? No. There are lots of things that Brock Lesnar is NOT, but the one thing he is is arguably the highest caliber of athlete to ever set foot into the Octagon.

As an amateur Wrestler Brock went 33-0 as a High School senior. He then entered junior college and was a two time All-American and 1998 national champion. From there he attended Minnesota State and became the 1999 NCAA national runner-up and the 2000 NCAA nation champion. Simply put. Brock Lesnar is as good a Wrestler as has ever entered the world of MMA.

From there Brock joined the WWE as a means of paying his bills and is widely recognized as one of the fastest learners in the history of WWE developmental.

After leaving the WWE Brock decided to give the NFL a go. Having never played a down of College ball Brock blew away Minnesota Viking officials and won a spot on the teams practice squad with the promise that after one year he would likely make the teams main roster.

The point of all of this is that the future of MMA is not retired NFL stars, or high school stand outs. The future of MMA is NBA and NFl level athletes who forgo these other sports for a shot at the UFC.

Brock was one of the worlds greatest Amateur wrestlers, and so naturally gifted that he walked on to an NFL team with virtually no experience. Brock Lesnar is what the UFC will be in 10 years.

FRANK MIR:

Frank Mir is an exceptional fighter who has gotten a bad rap. Mir, like Brock, was a High School Wrestling Champion. Mir went on to become a BJJ prodigy perhaps unmatched in the Heavyweight division who ended up with the world title wrapped around his waist after only 9 professional fights.

After his first round submission victory over Tim Sylvia for the UFC Heavyweight belt, tragedy struck. On September 17, 2004, Mir was knocked off his motorcycle by a car. His femur was broken in two places, every ligament in his knee was severed. Word on the street was that Frank Mir would never fight again.

Whether his sprit was broken, his interest was lagging, or he returned too soon, the man who fought Marcio Cruz in 2006 was not the same Frank Mir. Cruz, a noted submission artist, handled Mir with ease. "Pe De Pano" took him down, bled him and beat him with vicious ground and pound. Next up Mir faced former Ultimate Fighter also-ran Dan Christison. Mir won the fight but showed up out of shape and suffered from fatigue for most of the fight. mir's third comeback fight was a dissapointing quick knockout to up and coming striker Brandon Vera. Everyone it semmed, from fans to professional MMA commentators, wanted Mir gone. Cries of washed up, has been, never was, etc...rang through out the internets.

The UFC, not quick to let go of an attractive and talented former champion (who incidentally was never beaten for the belt), gave him one more shot against Dutch kickboxer Antoni Hardonk. Mir came in looking better than ever and ran through Hardonk in just over a minute, winning via Kimura.

Despite returning from career threatening injuries with a 2-2 record, in the minds of fans Mir was still no more than a washed up dough boy who spent all of his considerable free time at "the Spearmint Rhino" strip club. Perhaps was also the thinking of UFC brass when they chose him to be the sacrificial lamb to incoming superstar Brock Lesnar.

Frank was the perfect whipping boy. A pretty boy former champion coming off a win who's cardio, and heart were heavily in question.

Despite his win over UFC champ Tim Sylvia, Mir clearly saw this as his biggest challenge yet and came in ready for a fight. Brock attacked early and mauled Frank for all but 2 seconds of the fight. Unfortunately for Brock, those two seconds consisted of the submission wizard snapping on a knee bar and forcing the submission. 

Casual fans and some hard cores saw a WWE wanna be shown up by a true Mixed Martial Artist. What the sports wizened veterans saw, however, was the birth of a star in Brock, and the re-emergence of what many saw as a lost talent in Frank Mir.

We all know what happened next. Couture left for a year, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira won the interim title over Tim Sylvia.

When Randy returned he brought about a final four style tournament to crown the true champion.

Randy fought Brock and lost, Mir fought Nogueira and won.

Tomorrow is the finale: Brock vs. Mir

OFFICIAL TKO REPORT PICK: BROCK LESNAR OR FRANK MIR?

The story the UFC is selling is that Frank is just now coming into his own with a striking game to match his submission skills.

The truth, as I see it, is that Mir's striking has improved. For the past year and a half Mir has become serious about MMA for possibly the first time in his life and is growing by leaps and bounds.

Unfortunately for Frank, Brock is as well. Even Mir admits that the knee bar that caught Brock with in the first match up (Brock's 2nd fight) was an elementary move. Brock has been growing for almost 2 years, and elementary moves will no longer catch him. He holds wins over MMA legends in Randy Couture and Heath Herring and is only growing more confident by the day.

Brock Lesnar is going to take Frank Mir down. This isn't an if...he will do it, and there is nothing Frank can do to stop him. This time there will be no restart to save Frank from tapping. This time Brock will attack with a controlled fury that will keep him on top of his prone foe until the final bell has won.

Can Frank win? Sure, he actually has a better chance than maybe anyone in the UFC. He could pull off an amazing submission and shock the world. The odds are though, that he won't.

Brock Lesnar will defeat Frank Mir by TKO in the 1st round.

Introduction (and UFC 100)

When we launched the TKO Report site redesign a month or two back we hired an intern to help out with updates while the regulars worked feverishly on a larger, more involved site coming in the next few months. We were also hard at work on a couple of other exciting projects we have in the works. I figured this would free ME up to do a couple of blogs a day and finish designing the full Rear Naked What blog. 

So, as many of you have let us know, quite the opposite happened. TKO fell further and further behind, and no time was left to blog.

As of this past week, things are back on track. The site is staying current and hopefully will continue to improve each and every day. Many of you have asked that we start a comment section, or message board and other ways for you to provide us with feedback and keep us honest. Well,  this is a monumental time in the history of Mixed Martial Arts. UFC 100 is upon us, so time and commitments will just have to be rearranged because the time to blog is now.

Many off you have emailed us asking how we stand on the big fights on tomorrows card, so here it is. Our first official blog, followed by full breakdowns of all the big fights.

Canadian Emergency Rescue Training

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